TRACK RECORD
Every signal, every result. Win or lose.
We don't make picks. We measure the market, and we keep score of how our measurements hold up, in public. Updated every day from the same data our videos and terminal use.
Signals, settled
The last 60 days. Each strong pre-game signal is settled once per game against the final score: did the side it pointed to win outright? A record shows once 5 games are settled.
When the biggest bets went against everyday bettors.
When a prediction market disagreed with the sportsbooks.
The FlowWire Line, scored
The FlowWire Line is one win chance per game, blended from the sportsbooks (with their margin removed) and the prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket. Every day we score each game's closing line against the result with the Brier score: the average squared gap between the forecast and what happened. Lower is better; 0.25 is a coin flip.
Last 30 days
142 games| Forecast | Brier (lower is better) | Games |
|---|---|---|
| ★ Kalshi | 0.1777 | 141 |
| Polymarket | 0.1782 | 141 |
| Simple average of all three | 0.1784 | 141 |
| FlowWire Line | 0.1784 | 141 |
| Sportsbooks (no-vig) | 0.1795 | 141 |
Last 90 days
142 games| Forecast | Brier (lower is better) | Games |
|---|---|---|
| ★ Kalshi | 0.1777 | 141 |
| Polymarket | 0.1782 | 141 |
| Simple average of all three | 0.1784 | 141 |
| FlowWire Line | 0.1784 | 141 |
| Sportsbooks (no-vig) | 0.1795 | 141 |
Does 70% mean 70%?
When the line made a team the favorite, how often that favorite actually won.
Bar: how often the favorite won. Tick: what the line said on average. A well-calibrated line puts them together.
Scored November 11, 2026. Closing line = the last FlowWire Line before the game started.
How we count
- Signals are counted once per game and type, only strong ones, and only if raised before the game started.
- Results come from the final score. Nothing is removed after the fact.
- This is market information, not betting advice, and past results don't predict future ones.